Jessica Pegula vs Ann Li Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Second Serve Efficiency: Pegula has slightly outperformed Li, securing 44.78% of points on second serves compared to Li's 44.36% over the past six months. How significant is this difference? It's a minor edge that could influence match outcomes given its predictive relevance.
• Return Game Strength: In recent stats, Pegula has won 49.59% of points on opponents' second serves versus Li's 49.09%. However, Li excels on first serves with a 32.56% return success rate compared to Pegula's 28.92%. This suggests Li might have an advantage on returning first serves.
• Handling Breakpoints: Pegula and Li have saved nearly equivalent breakpoints, with Pegula saving 54.06% and Li saving 53.57%. A marginal difference here indicates both players are resilient under pressure.
• Performance Over the Last Year: Pegula has won 68.66% of her matches, leading to a strong winning record compared to Li's 59.09%. This suggests Pegula may enter the match with higher confidence based on recent performances.
• Preferred Surfaces: Pegula has her highest success on hard courts with a 67% win rate, while Li excels on indoor hard courts with a 63% win rate. Could this surface preference affect their performance? It's likely, as surface comfort often enhances performance.
• Event Experience: Pegula frequently competes in Masters series, holding a 58.62% win rate, whereas Li plays on the Main tour, achieving a 66.67% win rate. The level of competition may provide Pegula with more experience against top-ranked players.
• Head-to-Head Previous Encounters: The players each have one win in their past two matchups, with Pegula winning more individual sets overall. The tight history implies a closely matched contest.
• Deciding Sets: Li has a slight edge in deciding sets between them, having won their only encounter that reached a deciding set. Yet overall, Pegula performs better, winning 55% of deciding sets, compared to Li's 52%.
• Opponent Competition Level: Pegula has faced higher-ranked opponents on average (rank 51.07) compared to Li's average opponent rank of 142.21. This indicates that Pegula is accustomed to a tougher competition environment.
• Break Point Conversion: Recently, Li has a superior breakpoint conversion rate at 40%, surpassing Pegula's 35.36%. This could be pivotal during crucial moments in the match.

Editorial Prediction (August 31, 2025, UTC):

In this upcoming match, Pegula demonstrates a slight advantage in several key areas, including her experience against higher-quality opponents and better overall performance on the hard court surface. While her second-serve and opponent-quality stats favor Pegula, Li's effective return game on first serves and higher breakpoint conversion rate could present meaningful challenges.

The players' head-to-head record reflects a tight rivalry, with each securing a victory in past encounters. Although Li possesses a better track record in deciding individual sets between the two, Pegula's overall form and experience may outweigh this advantage.

Considering these factors, Pegula is likely to hold the edge given her stronger performance metrics and exposure to tougher competition. However, Li's efficiency in crucial game moments suggests a competitive match that could go either way. Nonetheless, Pegula is predicted to emerge as the winner in this contest.